China’s Nuclear Modernization: A Conversation with Fiona Cunningham
As the U.S.-China relationship becomes increasingly competitive, the unprecedented scale and speed of China’s nuclear force modernization has generated considerable concern within the United States. Described by some U.S. officials as a “nuclear breakout,” China’s nuclear arsenal is increasing in size, diversity, sophistication, and readiness to launch. Analysts have speculated that the goal of China’s nuclear strategy is shifting away from retaliating for a nuclear attack only in accordance with its longstanding nuclear no first-use policy. But there is little evidence available to confirm the reasons for China’s nuclear modernization. China’s past nuclear strategy and approach to gaining coercive leverage in conventional wars, which relied on non-nuclear weapons, offers a useful point of departure for analyzing current trends. The extent of continuity or change in China’s nuclear strategy has important implications for U.S. efforts to engage China in crisis communications and arms control to reduce nuclear risks in the future.
Fiona Cunningham is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. She studies international security, with a focus on nuclear strategy, cyber security, and China. Her research has appeared in International Security, Security Studies, The Washington Quarterly and The Texas National Security Review, and other outlets. Fiona has held fellowships at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, and Harvard’s Belfer Center. She conducted fieldwork as a joint Ph.D. research fellow at the Renmin University of China in 2015-6. Previously, she was Assistant Professor at the George Washington University. Fiona received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 2018. She is also a Research Affiliate of the MIT Security Studies Program, a Non-Resident Scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and a Non-Resident Fellow at the United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney.